Israeli Politics 101

On September 8th, Israeli police recommended that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert be indicted for bribery charges. Olmert is accused of illegally accepting donations from a New York businessman and manipulating government and charity receipts in order to finance family travel. This is the beauty of the only true democracy in the Middle East – amid all of this external conflict, we still make sure our country is run how it should be run, and that all leaders are accountable for their actions.

Since word got out several months ago of Olmert’s role in these scandals, various parties have been pushing for an early national election. On May 31st, leaders of his own party, Kadima, called for a date to be set for the election, effectively ending Olmert’s reign as leader of the centrist party. Olmert has long been criticized for his ineffective leadership, especially during the 2006 war with Lebanon, the first war in history that Israel has not decisively won.

The 70,000-plus members of Kadima went to the polls this past Wednesday, September 17th, to elect a new party chairman and thus a new Prime Minister, since Olmert had promised to step down after such an election. The race to replace Olmert in Kadima was for all intents and purposes narrowed down to two candidates: Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz. The more moderate Livni emerged the victor, but barely - she had 43.1% of the vote compared to 42% cast for the hawkish, former General Mofaz. The election was indeed much closer than the polls had predicted - some had Livni winning by as much as 13%.

Livni will have 42 days to form a coalition government with the other parties in the Knesset, or else Olmert will retain Prime Minister-ship national elections will be held in about three months. Due to the close vote, Livni has said that she will first hold a meeting with her challengers within Kadima to reconcile differences and forge a strong "post-Olmert" relationship between the party's leaders. Her task will then be to gain the support of a majority in the Knesset, something that will surely prove to be difficult given the stubbornness of the smaller parties toward Kadima's rule. However, if successful, she will be the first female Prime Minister since Golda Meir resigned in 1974.

The two major parties challenging Kadima for superiority are Labor on the left and Likud on the right. Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu is the leader of the opposition to the Kadima government in the Knesset and, according to the polls, will enjoy his second stint as Prime Minister if Kadima fails to form a coalition. Labor is currently part of the Kadima coalition, but is slated to only win 14 of 120 seats in the Knesset. Likud is expected to take 29 and Kadima 25.

So what does it all mean?

Israelis currently favor the conservative, hawkish Likud party over its two major party competitors. Thus, “enough is enough” seems to be the general consensus – through all the rocket attacks, failed negotiations, shaky leadership and one lost war, Israelis are now realizing that their desire for safety requires a more hard-lined approach to government. If general elections are indeed held and Likud wins and is able to form a coalition, it is highly likely that the majority of Kadima-instigated negotiations with the Palestinians will fall through. This may be a barrier to long-term peace, but for Israelis, immediate safety is the primary concern.

If the new Kadima chairman is able to form a coalition government within 42 days and become Prime Minister, he/she will remain in office until 2010, the year in which Olmert was scheduled to leave. Kadima will likely face much harsher resistance from Netanyahu’s opposition, but will still pursue a successful end to its peace talks with the Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority expressed its satisfaction with the outcome of the elections Thursday, with several of its leaders voicing their approval of the moderate Livni. Thus, the talks will continue as planned, with perhaps more actual results than there would have been under Olmert. The fate of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is very central to this election – Kadima’s leaders have pledged that they are doing all they can at the negotiating table to secure his release, but Likud is proposing a military operation in Gaza to find Shalit and bring him back to Israel.

In the end it will all come down to whether the majority of Israelis choose immediate security over a better chance for long-term peace. Of course, the two are not mutually exclusive, but the approaches to each are dissimilar enough to make this the deciding issue of the election.