The Future Israel

What changes to the Demographics will there be?

    Israel is like a soup with many flavors, brimming with ethnic and racial diversity but also boiling with contention. Quite simply, demographics always seem to be a hot topic. Key issues that regularly worry politicians include whether the Jews will become a minority, or new immigrants fail to assimilate, or the loss of Israel’s brightest thinkers. Politicians always refer to this situation as the “demographic threat.”

In regards to the threat that in the near future the Arabs will out-number the Jews, perhaps it is not as true as assumed. A recent study by Sergio Della Pergola, a renown demographer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, predicts that the majority of Israel’s population in the year 2020 will still contain a large fraction of Jews. Groups which tend to raise larger families, including Arab-Israelis and ultra-Orthodox Jews, have grown in numbers but they will still constitute a minority. Yoram Ettinger, a member of the American-Israel Demographic Research Group, also suggests that the demographic changes among the Arab population will not be lethal; instead “we see for the first time since 1948, an equal Jewish fertility rate and Arab fertility rate.”  For now, this issue should not be a big concern.

Another important controversy is that Israelis from different immigrant groups create societal divisions. Of course, the cultural diversity has enriched contributions to art, music and food from countries all around the world. However, discrimination still occurs. Russian and Ethiopian immigrants, for example, do not always feel socially integrated and accepted. Recent Israeli newspaper reports angrily pronounce that a school willingly segregated their Ethiopian students from their “white” Israeli classmates. The Lamerchav Elementary school in Petakh Tikva put the Ethiopian students in separate classrooms. The students were even assigned different recess hours than their peers to avoid social contact. Though the Ministry of Education was ignorant of this discriminatory system, it should serve as a wake-up call to the government to address existing prejudices. Nir Aviv, an Israeli citizen from Beersheva, remarked, “how can a country that doesn’t have peace between its own citizens makes peace with others?” Cohesion within Israeli society is a vital goal for our future generation. We must still hope and work for a future where no one in society feels foreign and no one faces discrimination.

 Another fear regarding demographics is that the countries brightest, youngest and richest are all leaving! The rough estimate of Israelis abroad is 700,000. Though many claim that the move is only “temporary,” the effects are still devastating. Only a few months ago did one of the wealthiest Israeli entrepreneurs, Lev Leviev, decide to make his new residency in Britain, whilst the brightest Israeli students seem to be attracted to American Universities.

    While in comparison to other countries, the willingness to fight and remain implanted in their state is far higher, the Herziliya 2006 Patriotism Survey noted a generational decline in feelings of Israeli patriotism. Refusal to fight, once unheard of, now persists among one-seventh of Jewish citizens. Two in every five Israelis are prepared to leave the country if their standard of living would be significantly improved aboard. These results point to a worrying picture for the future. If the next generation of Israeli’s lose the connection to their state’s identity, then the future could be very different. What it takes to change this is to re-ignite the hope, that there’s something worth fighting for, that they won’t be fighting for eternity, and that they can be proud of their State.

Will the Economy stay strong?

           As of late, technology increasingly allows Israel’s economy to expand. The Russian aliyah of the 1990s brought thousands of highly educated people to Israel. ICQ, computer chips, transformed Israel in the 1990s. Deregulation has brought Israel higher economic growth, but has also increased the gap between rich and poor. Economic progress and strength depends on a strong educational system to harness the ingenuity of the Israeli people. This may be a problem because Israeli teachers make less money than any other advanced industrialized nation. Since 2002, the amount of time Israeli children spend in school has declined. In fact, Israel has four separate systems: secular, religious Zionist (Orthodox), ultra-Orthodox, and Arab. In addition, it would benefit Israel’s economy to attract the vast pool of Jewish talent in the Diaspora to Israel--to study, work and eventually make aliyah.

            Through further research in solar energy, envision a world in which Israel’s environmental technology decreases our dependence on Arab Oil. Three Israeli cities are presently engaging in vast expansions of public transportation to reduce gasoline usage: Tel Aviv with a Metro, Jerusalem with light rail, and Haifa with a dedicated bus lines. Furthermore, California based “Project Better Place,” led by Israeli born Shai Agassi, has partnered with car maker Renault and the Israeli government to create an electric car infrastructure for Israel and put thousands of electric cars on the road by 2010. Instead of merely plugging the cars into the wall, each station will switch out the car’s battery and put in a fully charged battery much like you refill gas at a gas station. This model extends the range of electric cars and Israel’s government is endorsing the policy with zero tax on Agassi’s vehicles, a model which Denmark soon hopes to follow. A Green Light to the Nations!

Will the Diaspora still care about Israel?

    Relations with the Diaspora will depend, fundamentally, on how young Jews relate to Israel. Taglit has opened up Israel to a new generation of youth beyond those who grew up within Zionist youth movements. On the other hand, increasing assimilation limits Jewish identity and also weakens ties to Israel.

    Those that go on Taglit report feeling more connected to Israel and Judaism, a potential counter to assimilative pressures. American Jews of our generation need to utilize this opportunity, granted not to just go to Israel as tourists, but engage in the country and play a small role in building it.

    Through organic connections, translating to longer visits, volunteer projects we can transfer the Zionism so often expressed from the comfort of a couch to action. These programs provide mutual strength to both communities--to the improvement of Jewish American communities, and to create a stronghold of a new generation of youth making Aliyah. 

The future Israel--predicting a secure future? a divided Jerusalem? The real prospects for a future Palestinian state? Still more questions need to be answered. These are only a fraction of the questions and issues analysts are asking with regards to our young state. The dilemmas posed so far could have far-reaching effects on what Israel will become. The state we know and love can change for the best or the worst. We cannot sit back and wait. The decisions we make today are crucial in reshaping our future as a state, and as a nation.

     In this age of challenge, in Israel and in the Diaspora, we must be like the generations that built the state and as willing to challenge the staid consensus and look at the real situation of the Jewish people to survive. Despite 60 years of statehood, we are still not what Herzl defined as “a normal people”, and nor should we be, but should be a ‘light unto the nations.’ Let us remember the idealism of the Kibbutz, of Hertzl’s Altneuland, and Jabinotinsky’s Three Mems, and use the practical knowledge of sixty years of statehood to implement that idealism.